Computing the auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) method in forecasting COVID-19 data: A case study of NTB Province until the end of 2020

Abstract The purpose of this research is to conduct data forecasting on the spread COVID-19 in West Nusa Tenggara Province, Indonesia at end 2020. used NTB Province including number positive patient, patients recovered and patient passed away. process uses Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method GUI Multiple Forecasting System (G-MFS) based MATLAB by determining prediction next day graph equation generated after simulation. year 2020 obtained that confirmed amounting 19, 614 people with an average increase 1.48%, healed are 6, 651 1.10%, died 4, 953 2.42%. who showed provincial government needs give more serious attention handling patients.